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Factor’s driving continued Chinese investor interest in Australian property

The continued appreciation of the yuan could put pressure on the Chinese Government to ease the capital outflow restrictions which have impacted investment in Australian commercial property.

The issue for China is that the yuan is up massively over the last 12 months and that has been driven by the new capital control regulations which have been very effective in turning around the outflow of capital.

However that appreciation could see Chinese goods becoming less competitive and that is not what the Chinese will want to see.

If that is the case then it seems clear that some tinkering with those new capital outflow regulations, and among them those pertaining to real estate transactions, will occur and that will help to both stabilise the yuan at a level that is acceptable to China, and of course benefit Australian commercial property.

According to a report from London based Pictet Wealth Management, China’s total capital outflow was estimated at US$166 billion in 2017, down 78% from US$761 billion in 2015 and 67% from US$500 billion in 2016 as a result of the new regulations.

China’s initial tightening of capital outflow rules in 2016 followed a fall of nearly 7% in the value of the yuan against the USD which had been the largest depreciation since 1994.

The foreign exchange turnaround, he said, had seen the yuan appreciate 10.4% against the USD over the 12 months to December.

But more importantly if we look at the movement over the last two months from December when  1 USD bought 6.62 yuan and then last week when 1 USD bought 6.29 yuan we see an appreciation of 5.2% in just six weeks.

That is a huge appreciation of the yuan on top of the significant rise over the last 12 months, and, if it continues, then it must be troubling for at least some sectors of the Chinese manufacturing industry which of course is a hugely significant contributor to capital inflow.

The sheer weight of Chinese capital seeking offshore property investment remains very significant with Australia still the number two destination in the world behind the US for Chinese investors.

We need to keep in mind that while investment outflows from China have been curbed, Chinese investors are adjusting to the new rules and fine tuning their investment strategies.

To date in the new year we have seen little change in interest from Chinese investors, if anything, what may have restricted sales volumes, has been as much about the lack of quality stock in increasingly tightly held markets.

That has been particularly the case in the retail sector, while falling vacancy and incentive levels have been very encouraging for office market landlords.

A further factor driving continued Chinese investor interest in Australian property were regulations aimed at curbing Chinese domestic real estate activity in restricting developers’ ability to raise finance for their projects.

On the one hand we have the regulations restricting developers from seeking off-shore opportunities and on the other hand also being restricted in their activities at home.

It is a difficult time for property developers on the domestic front, who, under the centralised banking system, already face limited options for funding new projects.

It is not inconceivable then that the further restrictions on their ability to raise finance through debt and equity, may have them looking offshore where finance for their projects may prove easier to come by. Source CBRE

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Housing’s puzzling strength

Australian housing finance approvals beat expectations again in November, the number of approvals for owner occupiers up 2.1% vs expectations of a flat result. Approvals ex refi rose 2.4%mth to be up 9.2%yr.

The value of housing finance approvals to investors also posted a rise, up 1.5% but is down –8.3%yr.

The Nov detail showed continued strength in first home buyer loans (+4.5%mth, 36%yr) concentrated in NSW and Vic where state government stamp duty concessions are giving a big boost and activity is coming from a very low starting point.

Construction-related approvals were up 2%mth, 7.6%yr.

By state, gains in NSW (+1.9%mth), Qld (+4.3%mth) and SA (+2.1%mth) offset falls in Vic (–0.3%mth) and WA (–2.7%mth). Annual growth remains strongest in Vic (+16.8%) and NSW (+10.9%) bearing in mind that this is owner occupier approvals only (ex refi) and that the slowdown in investor activity has had a more material impact in these two states, NSW in particular.

Overall, the total value of finance approvals ex owner occupier refi was up 2.1%mth, and 1.7%yr. That compares to turnover, down around 16%yr, auction clearance rates, down over 13ppts, and an abrupt slowdown in price growth, down from a double digit pace mid-year to a sub-5% annual pace currently.

While the pull back in investor finance approvals is broadly consistent with macro-prudential tightening measures impacting this segment, the continued strength in owner-occupier activity has been surprising, particularly given material slowdown in wider housing market activity evident in other measures. Overall, the total value of loan approvals including investor loans and ex refi has firmed over the last year, up 1.7%yr.

The comparison with the previous macro-prudential tightening episode in 2015 is also intriguing. This resulted in a similar slowdown in wider market measures and a sizeable 10%+ decline in the total value of finance approvals.

The differences are puzzling but may be an indication that weaker foreign buyer demand – evident in the wider housing market performance but not captured by finance approvals – may have had a greater hand in the 2017 slowdown.

Matthew Hassan is senior economist with westpac

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Is it now possible to imagine Australia having a national affordable housing strategy, backed by funding, by the end of 2016.

At the National Housing Conference last week, there was considerable optimism about the newly appointed federal minister for cities, Jamie Briggs, whose infrastructure mandate includes housing. New energy is coming from the states with the largest affordable housing deficits – a social housing initiative from the New South Wales government and a “refreshed” metropolitan planning strategy in Melbourne with a stronger emphasis on affordable housing.

It is now possible to imagine Australia having a national affordable housing strategy, backed by funding, by the end of 2016.

Australia certainly needs such a strategy. The population is projected to reach 38 million in the next 35 years. Sydney and Melbourne are each expected to grow by at least three million people. The proportion of older people will be higher, with a lower proportion in the paid workforce.

This means we need at least six million new housing units in the next three decades. There is increasing impetus to locate these dwellings close to public transport, employment clusters and health and social services.

Cost pressures are intensifying

Rising housing demand and prices affect everyone, but low-income renters have fared worst in recent years. Capital city rents rose by twice the level of inflation from 2005 to 2010. By 2011, the shortage of suitable rental properties exceeded 500,000.

As a result, even most households that receive Commonwealth Rent Assistance (projected to cost A$6.6 billion in 2015-16) pay well over the recommended maximum rent. Some 55% of the A$7.7 billion annual cost to the government of capital gains exemptions and negative gearing goes to the top 10% of income earners. Only 4% goes to the bottom 20% of households by income.

Existing programs are not accomplishing policy aims. The Abbott government discontinued two small national programs, the Social Housing Initiative co-funding construction of non-profit housing and the National Rental Affordability Scheme subsidising below-market rental housing. No national strategy or infrastructure funding program has replaced those small but important initiatives.

Key steps towards affordability

What would be the basic elements of a national affordable housing strategy? Economist David Rosen led a review of the US$7 trillion spent in the US on federal finance, tax, lending, spending and regulatory programs and policies. According to Rosen, the place to start is a standard definition of “affordable housing”.

Malcolm Turnbull’s appointment of a cities minister, Jamie Briggs, has raised hopes of action on developing a national affordable housing strategy. AAP/Lukas Coch

The next step would be to calculate current and projected need for affordable housing by subtracting housing need from the available stock. There are local efforts to calculate this in cities like Melbourne, but it would need to be done in a consistent way across the country.

The cost of owning or renting a home includes rent or mortgage payments, property taxes and unit maintenance. A household can also incur onerous transport costs, if living far from employment and good public transport. Internationally, affordability is usually defined as housing that costs no more than 30-35% of household income, adjusted for household size.

For households earning less than 30% of their area’s median income, private market housing will almost certainly be out of reach without some form of subsidy.

In metropolitan Melbourne, for instance, the average weekly income is A$1333. A little over 11% of households in the city (159,000 households) earn less than A$400 a week, which is 30% of the median income. These households could only afford to pay a maximum of A$133 a week on the rent or mortgage. Less than 1% of rentals in Melbourne are available at those prices.

Social housing constitutes less than 3% of total housing stock. Most of it is occupied by these low-income households. So, at the most basic level, affordable housing would seek to fill that shortfall of more than 150,000 units in one major city alone, as well as building for future affordable housing needs.

How do we fund affordable housing?

After calculating need, the next requirement for a national affordable housing strategy would be to identify all potential revenue sources to fund it. These could be direct funding from national, state and local governments, but also indirect funding through tax rebates, low- or no-cost land, or mechanisms like reduced parking requirements or expedited planning approvals (which cuts land-holding costs and uncertainties).

A plethora of mechanisms used in other countries could be adopted here. For instance, in the US the Low Income Housing Tax Credit has, since 1986, allowed private investors to obtain tax credits in return for a ten-year investment in constructing or rehabilitating low-income rental housing. The stable and bipartisan program injects about US$6 billion a year in capital into affordable housing.

If a small proportion of the negative gearing tax credit were re-allocated towards investment in social housing, a similarly scaled program could be instituted in Australia. Similarly, if the Commonwealth guaranteed a 6% return on social housing investment, how much of the A$2 trillionheld in superannuation funds could be unlocked?

For the past two years, the Transforming Housing project has brought together state and local government, private developers, community housing providers and commercial and philanthropic investors to identify barriers to scaling up affordable housing in metropolitan Melbourne and how to overcome them.

Much of the emphasis has been on mechanisms at a state and local level, ranging from value capture financing to innovative design and construction. However, there is growing consensus that a Commonwealth affordable housing strategy is essential to enable integrated action by other levels of government and the private and charitable sectors.

With a clear sense of the numbers around affordable housing need and a stable financing and renewal model, the Turnbull government could reap multiple co-benefits. A national strategy could make cities more liveable, stimulate the property and construction sector, and reduce healthcare costs. The private and charitable sectors are waiting to swing into action.


This article was co-authored by: Dr David Rosen, principal of DRA Associates and an advisor on development, finance and policy; Rob Pradolin, general manager of business development for Frasers Property Australia; Catherine Brown, CEO of the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Foundation; and Dr Heather Holst, deputy CEO and director of services and housing for Launch Housing.

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The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index showed capital prices up 0.8 per cent last month to post a 2.5 per cent quarterly and 7.9 per cent annual rise.

Home price growth continues, but not because of supply shortage, say analysts

A widely-watched index shows home price inflation continued into April, with Sydney continuing to drive the national average higher.

The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index showed capital prices up 0.8 per cent last month to post a 2.5 per cent quarterly and 7.9 per cent annual rise.

Outside the capitals, prices remained fairly stable, with a 0.4 per cent fall last month and a 1.5 per cent gain over the past year that was only slightly ahead of consumer price inflation.

Amongst the capitals, the largest market of Sydney was driving all the gains, with a 1 per cent rise last month, 5.4 per cent quarterly jump and 14.5 per cent annual increase.

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Sydney residential real estate prices were now up an average 65.4 per cent since the global financial crisis (GFC) of late 2008 and early 2009.

Melbourne continued to be a distant second, with a 0.8 per cent monthly gain and 6.9 per cent annual rise.

Melbourne prices were up 52.3 per cent since the GFC.

All other capital city markets were subdued over the past year, with Perth flat-lining and Darwin property losing value, even though Adelaide and Hobart posted strong monthly rises in April.

A glimmer of good news for aspiring buyers in Sydney and Melbourne was that unit values have failed to keep pace with house prices.

Sydney units were up 9.7 per cent over the past 12 months, versus a 15.5 per cent rise in house prices.

Melbourne apartments had very modest price growth of 1.9 per cent versus 7.6 per cent for houses.

Without a doubt I think we will see the regulators looking to curb some of that investor demand.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic RP Data research director

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AUDIO: CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless on Australian home prices (ABC News)

CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said that trend was applying in most of the capitals, due to a relatively strong increase in unit supply compared to new houses.

“That additional supply we are seeing, particularly in Melbourne where apartment supply is substantial, is starting to put a cap on the rate of capital gains we are seeing,” he told ABC News Online.

Mr Lawless said it continued to be investors that were driving gains in property prices, despite regulator moves to slow lending to that sector.

“Historically, we’ve never seen investors outweighing owner-occupiers based on new mortgage originations, and that’s the case at the moment in Sydney,” he observed.

“Investors account for about 60 per cent of new mortgage origination, so very high and without a doubt I think we will see the regulators looking to curb some of that investor demand through the macroprudential levers via APRA [the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority].”

Supply matching demand: Fitch

Ratings agency Fitch weighed into the debate over whether Australia really has a shortage of housing supply.

Its interest in the topic was related to the ratings it gave for mortgage-backed securities, which could be hurt if an oversupply resulted in home price falls similar to Ireland and Spain.

Fitch’s conclusion was that the Australian housing market did not appear to be undersupplied, contrary to what housing industry groups and many independent analysts have argued.

If house prices were to fall, definitely we would not expect to experience a similar situation as it happened in Ireland or Spain.

James Zanesi, Fitch Ratings director

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AUDIO: Fitch analyst James Zanesi says home building has kept pace with population growth (ABC News)

However, neither was Australia’s housing market oversupplied, like Ireland and Spain were ahead of the global financial crisis.

“Data indicates that housing supply alone is unlikely to be the root cause of the recent house price boom in Australia, neither is it likely to be the cause of future price correction,” the Fitch analysis found.

This was a conclusion similar to that reached in two ABC analyses of Bureau of Statistics data, one in 2014 and one earlier this year.

Fitch has issued a warning, similar to one made recently by Goldman Sachs analysts, that Australia was building more homes, especially apartments, at the same time as population growth appeared to be slowing.

“Changes in population growth rates or in construction volumes that significantly alter the ratio of new housing to new citizens would be a warning of potential looming oversupply,” the ratings agency noted in its report.

“The current rate of supply of 0.4 houses per new citizen suggests 2.5 people per house, which is in line with the Australian census figure of an average of 2.7 persons per dwelling.

“Given the importance of overseas migration, a significant slowdown in immigration to Australia, could be a catalyst for reduced demand and lower housing prices.”

However, one of the report’s authors, James Zanesi, said that Australia’s supply situation was more akin to Britain, making a 40 or 50 per cent home price crash highly unlikely.

“If house prices were to fall, definitely we would not expect to experience a similar situation as it happened in Ireland or Spain,” he said.

He said an oversupply situation, such as in Ireland or Spain, would likely take years to develop in Australia.

“It was like four to six years, so definitely not months, it usually takes years to develop such oversupply, and normally its driven by an expectation that overseas migration will increase over time,” Mr Zanesi added.

Foreign buyer surge adds to demand … and supply

Any shortage in demand from new immigrants appears to be currently being offset by demand from overseas investors.

Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) figures released yesterday show the number of foreign investor approvals for purchasing Australian real estate jumped 94 per cent last financial year to 23,428.

Moreover, the big increase in foreign investment took place in the sub-$1 million segment (from 10,458 to 19,696) indicating the surge in demand is for residential properties rather than big commercial developments.

The data from FIRB was virtually a year old upon being released … and it’s probable that foreign investment’s increased further from that point.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic RP Data research director

The FIRB figures show an almost 50 per cent increase in the value of foreign real estate investment to $74.6 billion for 2013-14.

There was a greater than 50 per cent rise in the number of approvals for existing residential dwellings to 7,915 with a total value of $7.17 billion, or an average purchase price of $906,000.

While purchases of newly built dwellings, a category that non-resident investors can legally buy into, more than doubled from 4,449 to 11,338 and totalled $7.72 billion, an average purchase price of $681,000.

Thos average purchase prices put the typical foreign investment well into the price range of many first home buyers, especially in the expensive markets of Sydney and Melbourne where the vast bulk of foreign investment took place.

China was the biggest source of foreign real estate investment in 2013-14 at $12.4 billion, more than double the next biggest source, the USA, while Singapore was third at $4.3 billion.

“We’re still seeing foreign buyers as a relatively large proportion of the market,” observed Tim Lawless, who added that this trend is only likely to have strengthened in the current financial year.

“The data from FIRB was virtually a year old upon being released … and it’s probable that foreign investment’s increased further from that point.”

Last year, a House of Representatives committee found that FIRB’s data collection was also likely to be deficient, as it relied almost entirely on the honesty of foreign buyers to declare their purchase with minimal penalties for failing to do so, meaning the real scale of overseas real estate investment is unknown.

Topics: housing-industry, economic-trends, money-and-monetary-policy, australia

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ACT Excerpt From The 2015 April Market Report – Article by Your Investment Property 27-4-2015

Hand break slowly easing on housing market

Despite a dreary few years in the housing market over the past few years, Canberra could be ready to make a comeback. Alastair Lynn reports

In a state held under duress by activity in the public services, Canberra’s housing market is looking to negotiate its release. Significant fiscal consolidation, job shedding, cutbacks in services and concern over job security has impacted the local economy over the last three years. Fortunately in the early stages of 2015, there are signs indicating that this subdued market may be on the mend.

The latest CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index shows Canberra’s housing and unit values increased by 0.9% and 3.68% respectively last month. While overall dwellings are down 0.34% on this time the previous year, experts are confident that the indicators for growth are present.

“Certainly early signs have shown improvements in activity in the Canberra market, says Andrew Wilson, senior economist at Domain Group.

“The prospects are becoming more positive that the volatility in house price growth, particularly buyer activity, will end and we’ll see a more consistent outcome from the market that I think will be driven by lower interest rates.”

Data released over the last three months has certainly presented a reason for optimism.

Domain Group’s house price report for the December quarter showed the median house price grew 1.4% while units saw a 1.1% increase.

Wilson says that strong auction numbers at the end of 2014 and numbers tracking higher this year indicate that buyer activity is increasing. “There are early signs that confidence is gradually returning to the Canberra market and starting to filter back into prices growth,” he says.

With the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index showing the median house price at $580,000 and $410,000 for units, property in Canberra is not cheap.

However, Wilson pointed to buyer activity being generated more prominently in the middle and upper price range suburbs.

“There’s some positive signs for the Canberra market, however, it will always be hostage to what happens in terms of spending in the public services, so we need to be mindful of that.”

It’s not all doom and gloom
While Canberra has felt some impacts from the federal government’s plans to cut the public service, it does not spell the demise of the capital’s workforce.

“As is typical, when time passes by during the first term of a federal government, it finds it more difficult to implement cuts than intended,” says Linda Phillips, economist for Propell.

With unemployment levels at 4.5%, this does show a rise of 0.8% from 2014. However, ACT still holds the second lowest unemployment rate in the country, second only to NT.

Phillips says that as the situation is returning to normal, some growth in 2015 should be expected.

“Canberra in general has better prospects for investment in the next year, though newer properties, or those with redevelopment potential, will do better than average.”

SUBURB TO WATCH
Harrison: Developing infrastructure drives growth

Cinemas, Olympic swimming pools and excellent sports fields are just some of the developing infrastructure in the up and coming suburb of Harrison. While some suburbs in Canberra have been struggling due to the federal government’s cuts to the public service, Harrison has been going from strength to strength with a 12-month growth of 8%.

Situated just 2km east of the Gungahlin Town Centre, everything a couple or family could need is easily accessible. Primary schools, shopping centres, parks, medical centres and restaurants are all within a stone’s throw of virtually anywhere in the suburb. With the Canberra CBD only 10km away, the drive into town via the Federal Highway takes as little as 14 minutes.

The Land Development Agency has put a lot of time and effort over the last several years to Harrison and the surrounding suburbs. This in turn is driving interest in the area. Gungahlin Town Centre is now one of Canberra’s fastest growing hubs. Along with amenities like clubs, department stores and libraries, significant effort has been put into transport. A network of cycle ways and pedestrian paths now criss-cross the suburb. Together with well serviced bus routes, Harrison is well connected with the city and neighbouring suburbs.

Harrison is also a lot less expensive than nearby Nicholls ($500,000) and Forde ($522,000). Closer proximity to shopping centres and the CBD makes the area more appealing to both young or established couples.
With interest rates at their lowest for more than 50 years, there are some great rates available.

Source Your Investment Property 27-4-2015

Our goal is simple: to provide the greatest possible net operating income, while continually enhancing the value of the asset. We believe in using proven and new strategies and continually looking for new ways to provide cost savings for the property and the owner Our vision To provide a flexible and all-encompassing management service for our customers' properties and assets. Our values Exceptional customer service.  Transparency, punctuality and reliability.

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Direct Trade Sino Aust

According to The Australia China Business Council, direct trade from Australia to China contributes 5.5 per cent to Australian GDP, amounting to $79,150 million, nearly 200,000 Australian jobs (or one in 58 Australian jobs) is sustained by direct export activities to China. ‪#‎ACBC‬

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Best Regards  Linda & Carlos Debello  “Your Local Property Sales & Management Specialist”  LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd  PO BOX 19  ZILLMERE 4034   0413 560 808 (Mob 2)  0409 995 578 (Linda)  http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au/index.php?lan=ch    Chinese website https://www.facebook.com/ljgrealestate

Best Regards
Linda & Carlos Debello
“Your Local Property Sales & Management Specialist”
LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd
PO BOX 19
ZILLMERE 4034
0413 560 808 (Mob 2)
0409 995 578 (Linda)
http://www.ljgrealestate.com.au/index.php?lan=ch Chinese website
https://www.facebook.com/ljgrealestate

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